Growing out of a conference on Expectations Formation and Economic Disequilibrium held in New York City in 1981, the papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes in which individual rationality is no guarantee of convergence to the 'correct' model and the equilibrium coordination of agents' plans. They reject the 'optimality' argument for the rational expectations hypothesis, opening the door to other hypotheses of optimal expectations of agents in the decentralized market economy.

"This marvelous book by Frydman and Goldberg documents . . . invaluable insights of the 'early modern' theory of capitalism that were lost when the profession endorsed rational expectations equilibrium. . . . Happily for me and, I believe, for the profession of economics, this deeply original and important book gives signs of bringing us back on track--on a road toward an economics possessing a genuine microfoundation and at the same time a capacity to illuminate some of the many aspects of the modern economy that the rational expectations approach cannot by its nature explain."--from the foreword by Edmund S. Phelps, winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in economics

"Anyone who has ever studied markets for financial assets such as currencies knows that it is very difficult to explain, much less predict, short to medium term fluctuations. In their innovative new work, "Imperfect Knowledge Economics," Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg make a strong case that it would be particularly helpful to improve our understanding of how financial markets process new knowledge and information. In addition, the book offers a useful guide to understanding existing empirical exchange rate models."--Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University

"The centrality of expectations in understanding economic fluctuations has long been recognized, but their formation has not been adequately described. The rational expectation hypothesis was a bold and ingenious attempt, but it has proved empirically very far from satisfactory, most strikingly, in the field of foreign exchange markets, where the good documentation makes the failure easier to establish. Frydman and Goldberg open new doors by a more realistic understandingof the process of forming expectations; by recognizing that universal rules are intrinsically impossible, they exhibit a more creative understanding of the recent history of foreign exchange spot and futures markets."--Kenneth J. Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist

"If you are looking for a way to escape from the Procrustean bed of rational expectations equilibrium--and, if you pay attention to real-world data, you should be--try reading this imaginative and intelligent book. It will amply repay your efforts."--Alan S. Blinder, Princeton University

"If you have been puzzled by the difficulty of reconciling uncertainty with the equilibrium models that economists use to explain market outcomes, this is the right book to read and reread. It launches a new approach, "Imperfect Knowledge Economics," which highlights the long-recognized failure of prespecified general equilibrium modeling to account for the behavior of agents under changing conditions. Frydman and Goldberg are thus proposing models that are able to generate robust qualitative predictions, leading to a better understanding of short- and long-term swings in economic variables. In macroeconomics, there will undoubtedly be a 'before' and 'after' this book."--Jean-Paul Fitoussi, president, l'Observatoire francais des conjonctures economiques, Paris

"The record of contemporary economics in explaining the behavior of exchange rates is a sorry one. Frydman and Goldberg make the foreign exchange rate problem the particular object of a searching critique of current macroeconomics and use it also as the vehicle for demonstrating how they would break its methodological 'stranglehold.' Their own alternative, imperfect knowledgeeconomics, is systematically worked out and persuasively argued. It is my hope that the book will be widely read and debated."--Axel Leijonhufvud, UCLA and the University of Trento

"This is a major and controversial contribution to macroeconomics that cannot fail to make an impact in several areas. Academics will read it for the comprehensive critique of much macroeconomic theory. More empirically motivated economists will look carefully at the rich scope for empirical analysis that the book opens up. Policymakers too will want to look at it--and will be relieved to see that they come off much better than the main authors of the rational expectations school."--Niels Thygesen, University of Copenhagen

This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," "Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory," a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design.

The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in "Rethinking Expectations" differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come.

The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.

In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest on the same fatal assumption--that markets act mechanically and economic change is fully predictable. In "Beyond Mechanical Markets," Frydman and Goldberg show how the failure to abandon this assumption hinders our understanding of how markets work, why price swings help allocate capital to worthy companies, and what role government can and can't play.

The financial crisis, Frydman and Goldberg argue, was made more likely, if not inevitable, by contemporary economic theory, yet its core tenets remain unchanged today. In response, the authors show how imperfect knowledge economics, an approach they pioneered, provides a better understanding of markets and the financial crisis. Frydman and Goldberg deliver a withering critique of the widely accepted view that the boom in equity prices that ended in 2007 was a bubble fueled by herd psychology. They argue, instead, that price swings are driven by individuals' ever-imperfect interpretations of the significance of economic fundamentals for future prices and risk. Because swings are at the heart of a dynamic economy, reforms should aim only to curb their excesses.

Showing why we are being dangerously led astray by thinking of markets as predictably rational or irrational, "Beyond Mechanical Markets" presents a powerful challenge to conventional economic wisdom that we can't afford to ignore.

In this, the first of three volumes to be published by the CEU Press on corporate governance in Central Europe and Russia, distinguished economists, legal scholars, political scientists and sociologists examine the emerging institutions of corporate governance in privatized firms in transition economies. They investigate the role of banks, investment funds, and pension funds, as well as the role and impact of residual state ownership. Each paper combines experience from advanced market economies with in-country empirical work in transition settings. Together these papers represent the most comprehensive and up-to-date comparative analysis yet undertaken of privatization struggles and their impact on corporate governance in Central Europe and Russia.

In this, the second of three volumes to be published by the CEU Press on corporate governance in Central Europe and Russia, distinguished economists, legal scholars, political scientists and sociologists examine the emerging institutions of corporate governance in privatized firms in transition economies. They look at the nature of control exercised by insiders in Central and Eastern European firms and the emergence of indigenous corporate governance institutions. The volume also addresses the role of foreign investors and the many issues involved in the design of corporate and securities law. Each paper combines experience from advanced market economies with in-country empirical work in transition settings. Together these papers represent the most comprehensive and up-to-date comparative analysis yet undertaken of privatization struggles and their impact on corporate governance in Central Europe and Russia.

In Eastern Europe privatization is now a mass phenomenon. The authors propose a model of it by means of an illustration from the example of Poland, which envisages the free provision of shares in formerly public undertakings to employees and consumers, and the provision of corporate finance from foreign intermediaries. One danger that emerges is that of bureaucratization. On the broader canvas, mass privatization implies the reform of the whole system, the creation of a suitable economic infrastructure for a market economy and the institutions of corporate governance. The authors point out the need for a delicate balance between evolution - which may be too slow - and design - which brings the risk of more government involvement than it is able to manage. A chapter originating as a European Bank working paper explores the banking implications of setting up a totally new financial sector with interlocking classes of assets. The economic effects merge into politics as the role of the state is investigated. Teachers and graduate students of public/private sector economies, East European affairs; advisers to bankers or commercial companies with Eastern European interests.

This Third Volume in the acclaimed series of CEU Privatization Reports deals with the transition to a free market in retail trade and consumer services in Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. The authors describe and analyze all the programs with the help of which shops, restaurants, and service establishments have been privatized in the three most advanced postcommunist countries and provide detailed quantitative evidence concerning all aspects of the small privatization process. The volume also presents the results of the first extensive empirical survey of privatized establishments in the three countries and draws important conclusions concerning the conditions necessary for a successful privatization of the retail trade and consumer service sectors in Eastern Europe. The authors argue that small privatization is, above all, a transfer of ownership to commercial real estate and that the nature of the rights conveyed to the new owners makes a great difference with respect to postprivatization restructuring. They also show that the presence of outside owners, not connected with predecessor state establishments, is one of the most important factors determining the extent of changes brought about by small privatization.

Macroeconomics would not be what it is today without Edmund Phelps. This book assembles the field's leading figures to highlight the continuing influence of his ideas from the past four decades. Addressing the most important current debates in macroeconomic theory, it focuses on the rates at which new technologies arise and information about markets is dispersed, information imperfections, and the heterogeneity of beliefs as determinants of an economy's performance. The contributions, which represent a breadth of contemporary theoretical approaches, cover topics including the real effects of monetary disturbances, difficulties in expectations formation, structural factors in unemployment, and sources of technical progress. Based on an October 2001 conference honoring Phelps, this incomparable volume provides the most comprehensive and authoritative account in years of the present state of macroeconomics while also pointing to its future.

The fifteen chapters are by the editors and by Daron Acemoglu, Jess Benhabib, Guillermo A. Calvo, Oya Celasun, Michael D. Goldberg, Bruce Greenwald, James J. Heckman, Bart Hobijn, Peter Howitt, Hehui Jin, Charles I. Jones, Michael Kumhof, Mordecai Kurz, David Laibson, Lars Ljungqvist, N. Gregory Mankiw, Dale T. Mortensen, Maurizio Motolese, Stephen Nickell, Luca Nunziata, Wolfgang Ochel, Christopher A. Pissarides, Glenda Quintini, Ricardo Reis, Andrea Repetto, Thomas J. Sargent, Jeremy Tobacman, and Gianluca Violante. Commenting are Olivier J. Blanchard, Jean-Paul Fitoussi, Mark Gertler, Robert E. Hall, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., David H. Papell, Robert A. Pollak, Robert M. Solow, Nancy L. Stokey, and Lars E. O. Svensson. Also included are reflections by Phelps, a preface by Paul A. Samuelson, and the editors' introduction.